Tough race in Germany!
If you like politics, the German election will give you a lot of topics of discussion the coming days. I just spoke to a friend who is active in ECOSY and Jusos (Social Democratic Students in Germany) and it was awesome to hear the cheers through the phone as better figures for the SPD came through. Still, CDU might become the biggest party, even though SPD might come a little closer since the big cities are counted last. I just read on the wonderful Der Spiegel News Blog (IN ENGLISH) that the FDP is ruling out a stoplight-coalition (see below), and nobody seems to be willing to negotiate with the Links/Left-party. According to my German friend, discussions are likely to continue for some days, but one possibility would be a SPD-Greens minority coalition, that will have to seek/make agreements with other parties (Links for example) to get a majority in the Bundestag. That seems OK to me since it is close to what we have in Sweden (the Greens don't have portfolios though), but it would be a novelty to the German system. Most naturally we will have to wait for the final results, but it is difficult not to start speculating...
Most important: the left bloc got more votes than the CDU and the FDP, CDU sqaundered a nice lead again, and SPD bounced back. According to this logic, I think the SPD is in the front seat to form a government as the biggest party of the left bloc, but that is my Soc Dem Scandinavian take on it. Anyway, this election, and the election in New Zeeland yesterday (where Labour/Helen Clark won), show that it ain't over until it's over. Remember that, Mr. Reinfeldt.
Most important: the left bloc got more votes than the CDU and the FDP, CDU sqaundered a nice lead again, and SPD bounced back. According to this logic, I think the SPD is in the front seat to form a government as the biggest party of the left bloc, but that is my Soc Dem Scandinavian take on it. Anyway, this election, and the election in New Zeeland yesterday (where Labour/Helen Clark won), show that it ain't over until it's over. Remember that, Mr. Reinfeldt.
posted by Eric Sundström at 8:34 pm
7 Comments:
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I don't really agree that the minority red-green, tolerated by the Left Party will work so well in Germany - Schröder was really dismissive of Lafontaine in his speech. Also, Germany does not have the tradition of minority administrations. I reckon the Traffic Light coalition is the best we might get (and for sure better than the 'Jamaica Coalition' - CDU-FDP-Greens - that some have been talking about). More on this in my blog...
Jon: I know that a minority gov would be a novelty, but it is a new ball game and all ideas should be thrown out. Since the SPD is so negative vis-à-vis the Links party, I also think the stop-light is the best we can hope for. Maybe the Liberals will give in after a few days...? And even if Jamaica coalition is a fun name, I really hope that the Greens would not sink so low...
Well, I think the Jamaica-coalition is about as much of a joke as the name! And I am sure that Fischer is not going to join that easily... The FDP on the other hand might well crave power enough to join a traffic-light coalition.
Also, we have to remember why this election was called in the first place: the SPD found it very hard to get anything through the Bundesrat, and after the defeat in Nordrhein-Westfalen this became even tougher. A minority administration would have this problem even more. Now, with the FDP in there, who are also in coalition with the CDU in many Länder, some progress might be more possible. But many compromises would be needed by the SPD and Greens to make the traffic-light coalition happen.
It's really fascinating though!
I think you are right Jon, traffic light would be the best. Which is what I was hoping for already around noon Sunday...
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